Ahead of the curve

(disclaimer : while I work for Google, none of this post should in any way be seen as representing Google, it's people or projects. Bah - like I have that kind of influence :-) ).

The folks over at google.org have an excellent tool called Google Flu Trends. The approach is essentially to use the frequency and volume of the things that people search for to indicate activity, to spot a trend. The idea is that data from doctors and the CDC are trailing indicators, whereas aggregate search data shows on the leading edge - people search for "flu symptoms" when they're first getting sick.

It turns out that there's a Google service, called trends, where you can try this out for yourself, in other domains. So for example, if you check for 'recession' you'll see that, while there was a couple of blips mid-to-late 2007, Jan 2008 was the real starting point. Similarly with 'foreclosure' or 'credit crunch'. The trick is to think of a search term that people might use, that's unique enough to be a helpful indicator. So "realtor" isn't that good for house sales, but "home inspection' is pretty interesting. Doesn't seem like the property market is recovering any time soon. Another interesting 'worry' indicator might be "FDIC insured" - be nice to see that settle down to a low steady state.